Tag

#sequence-of-returns

Posts tagged with sequence-of-returns

3 posts

The 4% rule tested against the real 2016 to 2024 market path, from the 2020 COVID crash to the 2022 stock and bond selloff.

Retirement • Sep 07, 2026 •13 min read

4% Rule vs the Real 2016 to 2024 Market Path

We ran the actual 2016 to 2024 markets through a 4% rule FIRE portfolio. The COVID crash, 2022 slump, and inflation spike left a ledger and new rules.

#4-rule #withdrawal-strategy +3

How often you should check your portfolio shifts from almost never during accumulation to scheduled monthly and quarterly reviews after reaching FIRE.

Investing • Aug 17, 2026 •10 min read

How Often Should You Check Your Portfolio on the FIRE Path

How often should you check your portfolio? Almost never while accumulating on the FIRE path, then monthly once retired; the noise math explains why.

#portfolio-monitoring #fire-phases +4

Japan's 34-year Nikkei crash provides a historical stress test for the FIRE withdrawal rate that exposes the dangers of single-country equity concentration.

Investing • Jul 27, 2026 •12 min read

FIRE Withdrawal Rate Stress Test From Japan's 34-Year Crash

Japan's Nikkei needed 34 years to fully recover from its 1989 peak. We stress test what that means for your FIRE withdrawal rate and the 4% rule.

#fire #withdrawal-strategy +4