S&P 500 Concentration Risk Depends on Your FIRE Date
S&P 500 concentration risk is a sequencing problem for retirees, not accumulators. Sixty years of index churn shows why, plus the bond tent fix.
Category
Investing
Low-cost index funds, ETFs, asset allocation, and dividend strategy that help FIRE savers compound wealth toward financial independence on autopilot.
20 posts
Small-Cap Value Tilt vs Total Market for FIRE, in FI Months
A small-cap value tilt moves a 50% savings-rate FI date by barely a year, and it deepens early-retirement drawdowns. See the trade-off priced in FI months.
Venture Capital After FIRE Turns 4% Into 5.7%
Venture capital after FIRE only works above an inflation-indexed spending floor. See the arithmetic that turns a 4% rate into 5.7% on liquid assets.
TIPS Ladder Math at 3% Real Yields for Early Retirees
At 3% real yields, a 15-year TIPS ladder costs about $12 per $1 of annual income. Run the FIRE math on cost, payout rate, and when it beats a fund.
The Governmental 457(b) Early Retirement Withdrawal Playbook
Governmental 457(b) early retirement means penalty-free withdrawals at any age after separation. Compare it with the rule of 55, Roth ladders, and SEPP.
Consolidating Retirement Accounts Without Breaking FIRE
Consolidating retirement accounts on the FIRE path: prune fund overlap, price complexity in FI months, and avoid rollovers that quietly cost money.
Roth vs Traditional 401(k) for FIRE Is Bracket Arbitrage
Roth vs Traditional 401(k) for FIRE is bracket arbitrage: deduct at your top rate now, withdraw lean at a low effective rate, convert cheap in gap years.
Lower Expected Returns Early Retirement Math at 3% Real
The lower expected returns early retirement math, repriced. Timelines at 3% real, the 25x vs 30x choice, and the levers that buy the years back.
Savings Rate vs Investment Returns at the FIRE Crossover
Savings rate vs investment returns: past a calculable crossover point, returns move your FIRE date more than scrimping. See the $50k to $2M lever table.
Rental Properties vs Index Funds Priced as a Second Job
Rental properties vs index funds, priced as a job. Tally landlording's real hours, compute the implicit hourly wage, and check when rentals win.
Living Off Dividends at 9% Breaks Down Over 50 Years
Living off dividends at a 9% yield looks like retiring at 11x expenses. Here is why that math fails over a 50-year FIRE horizon and what to hold instead.
How Often Should You Check Your Portfolio on the FIRE Path
How often should you check your portfolio? Almost never while accumulating on the FIRE path, then monthly once retired; the noise math explains why.