Lower Expected Returns Early Retirement Math at 3% Real
The lower expected returns early retirement math, repriced. Timelines at 3% real, the 25x vs 30x choice, and the levers that buy the years back.
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#fire-math
Posts tagged with fire-math
15 posts
Car Total Cost of Ownership Priced in FI Months
Run the keep, used, or new car decision as FIRE math. Compare car total cost of ownership, find the repair crossover, count months added to FI date.
What Is Your Desired Salary? Price It Like an Investor
Answer 'What is your desired salary?' with a range that protects your FIRE date, because at a 40 percent savings rate every $1,000 of base pay compounds.
Are Guru Courses Worth It? The Expected Value Math
Are guru courses worth it? The expected value math says usually no. We compare $997 tuitions to 15 years of index fund returns and give a strict buy rule.
Rental Properties vs Index Funds Priced as a Second Job
Rental properties vs index funds, priced as a job. Tally landlording's real hours, compute the implicit hourly wage, and check when rentals win.
FIRE on a $65,000 Salary, Priced in Real Dollars
FIRE on a $65,000 salary works, just not at a 50 to 70 percent savings rate. See the dollar floor math, the honest timeline, and the lever that moves it.
One More Year Syndrome Priced in Childhood Summers
Priced in weeks, one more year syndrome spends 12.5 percent of a ten-year-old's remaining at-home summers. Run both ledgers, then decide by rule.
How Much Should You Save for Retirement? Two Inputs Decide
How much should you save for retirement? FIRE math prices the two inputs the 15% rule skips, your portfolio multiple and your savings rate definition.
Living Off Dividends at 9% Breaks Down Over 50 Years
Living off dividends at a 9% yield looks like retiring at 11x expenses. Here is why that math fails over a 50-year FIRE horizon and what to hold instead.
The Hidden Cost of Monetizing a Hobby You Love
Monetizing a hobby quietly sells the leisure FIRE is buying you. See the photography vs mobile detailing math, the leisure premium, and a firewall test.
Sequence of Returns Risk Playbook Beats the 50x Fortress
Sequence of returns risk in early FIRE is survivable. This playbook prices spending cuts, cash buffers, and a return to work against working to 50x.
Stock Picking vs Index Funds? A 5% Answer for FIRE
A capped 5% speculation sleeve settles stock picking vs index funds for FIRE. Total loss costs months, not years, and the rulebook keeps it that way.